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The Lancet Healthy Longevity

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match The Lancet Healthy Longevity's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Impact of acute hospitalisation on development of long-term disease and health inequality: a longitudinal population study

Wan, Y. I.; Pearse, R. M.; Prowle, J. R.

2026-04-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.25.26351727 medRxiv
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Objective To examine the impact of acute illness on long-term health and describe any differences in these associations between socioeconomic and ethnic groups. Design Longitudinal population study. Setting Linked primary and secondary care data recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Participants Adults ([≥]18 years) residing in England registered with a primary care general practice (GP) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2022 who have not opted out of inclusion into CPRD and linked data sources. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and ethnicity by UK census 2011 definitions. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was new long-term disease and multimorbidity (two or more long-term diseases). We describe incidence of hospitalisation for acute illness as the exposure. Results We included 18,329,659 people, with 9,339,394 (51.0%) women, 7,430,555 (40.5%) people from the most deprived deciles (IMD 1-4) and 3,009,717 (16.4%) from a minority ethnic group. 6,038,272 (32.9%) people experienced hospitalisation for acute illness. Hospitalisation was associated with increased onset of long-term disease in those alive at the end of follow up (41.1% hospitalised vs 18.7% not hospitalised; adjusted HR 2.48 (2.47 to 2.48)). Compared to non-hospitalised, those who had been hospitalised were more likely to change from being disease free at baseline to having a new long-term disease (12.9% vs. 7.5%), develop multimorbidity (4.7% vs. 1.1%), or transition to multimorbidity if they had pre-existing disease (8.1% vs. 1.8%). Age-standardised hospitalisation rates were highest in the most deprived decile and in people with Black ethnicity. Comparative hospitalisation ratio for IMD 1 compared to IMD 10 ranging from 1.78 in 2018 to 1.96 in 2021 and for Black ethnicity compared to White ranging from 1.03 in 2017 to 1.08 in 2021. Conclusions Acute hospitalisation is a key stage in the development of long-term disease and may be an underutilised opportunity for intervention to change healthy life trajectory and reduce health inequality.

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A Return-on-Investment Analysis of a Community-Based Diabetes Self-Management Program In New York City

Goldwater, J. C.; Harris, Y.; Das, S. K.; Fernandez Galvis, M. A.; Maru, D.; Jordan, W. B.; Sacaridiz, C.; Norwood, C.; Kim, S. S.; Neustrom, K.

2026-04-23 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351481 medRxiv
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the return on investment (ROI) of a community based Diabetes Self Management Program (DSMP) enhanced with health related social needs (HRSN) screening and referrals, implemented by the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene with three community based organizations in highly impacted, under resourced neighborhoods. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective cost benefit analysis from a public sector payer perspective was conducted among 171 adults with type 2 diabetes who completed a six week, peer led DSMP delivered by community health workers (CHWs) in English, Spanish, and Korean during 2018 2019. A time driven, activity based costing model captured direct implementation costs, CHW workforce turnover, and administrative overhead. Monetized benefits included avoided diabetes related complications, reductions in self reported emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations, and quality adjusted life year (QALY) gains from improved medication adherence. Univariate sensitivity analyses tested robustness under conservative assumptions. RESULTS: Total program costs were $179,224; monetized benefits totaled $1,824,213, yielding a net benefit of $1,644,989 and an ROI of 918%, approximately $10 returned per $1 invested. Excluding QALY gains, ROI remained 551%. Self reported ED visits declined from 149 to 82 and hospitalizations from 93 to 24 in the six months following intervention. Over 80% of participants reported housing instability; 72% were Medicaid covered and 16% uninsured. Sensitivity analyses confirmed a positive ROI under all conservative scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: A CHW led, community based DSMP integrated with HRSN screening and referrals delivered substantial economic and public health value among adults facing housing instability and structural barriers to care. Findings support inclusion of DSMP as a covered benefit in Medicaid managed care, value based payment arrangements, and housing access initiatives to advance equitable diabetes outcomes.

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Inequality in healthy lifespan following surgery: a longitudinal population study

Wan, Y. I.; Pearse, R. M.; Prowle, J. R.

2026-04-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.25.26351729 medRxiv
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Background Surgery is a widely used treatment option but the impact of surgery on long-term disease across socioeconomic groups is unknown. Methods Longitudinal population study using linked primary and secondary care data describing adults ([≥]18 years) in England recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2021. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). The exposure was surgery and primary outcome was long-term disease. Data are presented as n (%), median (IQR), and adjusted hazards ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals. Findings Of 18,329,659 people, 8,951,145 (48.8%) underwent surgery. 78.6% of index surgeries were elective (n=7,032,475), 21.4% were emergency (n=1,918,670). Amongst surgical patients, 4,741,188 (52.0%) were women, 3,540,136 (39.6%) from the most deprived deciles (IMD 1-4) and 994,595 (11.1%) from a minority ethnic group. Age-standardised rates of surgery were higher in deprived individuals (comparative rate ratio IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: 1.11 (95% CI 1.11-1.11), emergency: 1.54 (1.54-1.54)). Age at first surgery was 42 (27-60) years for elective and 42 (25-65) years for emergency surgery overall, but lower for people from IMD 1-4 (elective: 39 (26-57) years, emergency: 38 (24-60) years). Rates of long-term disease increased following both elective (baseline 19.6%, three years 24.5%) and emergency surgery (baseline 10.3%, three years 12.3%). Risk of new long-term disease following surgery increased with increasing levels of deprivation (IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: HR 1.46 (1.45-1.48), emergency: HR 1.46 (1.44-1.48)). Interpretation Surgical treatment is strongly associated with the onset of long-term disease and factors which limit healthy life expectancy. Surgery occurs at a younger age among socioeconomically deprived groups and may be linked to health inequalities. Similar but more complex patterns of inequality were seen in minority ethnic groups. Funding Barts Charity and UK Academy of Medical Sciences.

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The epidemiological transition in Vietnam, 1990-2023: a Global Burden of Disease 2023 analysis

Bui, L. V.; Nguyen, D. N.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351624 medRxiv
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Background. Vietnam's disease burden has shifted from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but the tempo, drivers, and regional positioning of this transition have not been jointly quantified. We characterised Vietnam's epidemiological transition 1990-2023 against ten Southeast-Asian (SEA) peers. Methods. Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data, we computed joinpoint-regression AAPC with 95% CI (BIC-penalised, up to three break-points) for age-standardised DALY rates and cause-composition shares. We applied Das Gupta three-factor decomposition to 1990-2023 absolute DALY change (population-size, age-structure, age-specific-rate effects) and benchmarked Vietnam's NCD share against an SDI-conditional peer trajectory via leave-one-out quadratic regression. Premature mortality was quantified as WHO 30q70 under both broad NCD and strict SDG 3.4.1 definitions, using Chiang II life-table adjustment identically across all eleven countries. Findings. The CMNN age-standardised DALY rate fell from 13,295.9 to 4,022.1 per 100,000 (AAPC -4.63%/year; 95% CI -4.80 to -4.46); the NCD rate fell only from 21,688.2 to 19,282.8 (AAPC -0.37; -0.45 to -0.30). NCD share of total DALYs rose from 52.99% to 70.67% (+17.67 pp; AAPC +1.09). Vietnam ranked fourth of eleven SEA countries in 2023 (up from sixth in 1990) and sat 5.3% above the SDI-expected trajectory. Das Gupta decomposition attributed the +10.63 million NCD DALY increase to population growth (+6.26 M) and ageing (+6.08 M); rate change removed only 1.71 M. Premature NCD mortality fell from 25.02% to 21.80% (broad, 12.9% reduction) and from 22.17% to 19.50% (SDG 3.4.1, 12.0%; Vietnam sixth of eleven) - far short of the SDG 3.4 one-third-reduction target. Interpretation. Vietnam has entered a disability- and ageing-dominated NCD phase. Meeting SDG 3.4 by 2030 requires population-scale primary prevention sized to demographic momentum.

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A systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatments for obesity in adults: 2026 Update

Ciudin Mihai, A.; Baker, J. L.; Belancic, A.; Busetto, L.; Dicker, D.; Fabryova, L.; Fruhbeck, G.; Goossens, G. H.; Gordon, J.; Monami, M.; Sbraccia, P.; Martinez Tellez, B.; Yumuk, V.; McGowan, B.

2026-04-24 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351196 medRxiv
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This updated systematic review and network meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy and safety of obesity management medications (OMMs) in terms of reducing body weight and obesity related complications. Medline and Embase were searched up to 21 November 2025 for randomized controlled trials comparing OMMs versus placebo or active comparators in adults. The primary endpoint was percentage total body weight loss (TBWL%) at the end of the study. Secondary endpoints were TBWL% at 1, 2 and 3 years, anthropometric, metabolic, mental health and quality of life outcomes, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, remission of obesity related complications, serious adverse events and all cause mortality. Sixty six RCTs (66 comparisons) were identified: orlistat (22), semaglutide (18), liraglutide (11), tirzepatide (8), naltrexone/bupropion (5) and phentermine/topiramate (2), enrolling 63,909 patients (34,861 and 29,048 with active compound and placebo, respectively). All OMMs showed significantly greater TBWL% versus placebo; tirzepatide and semaglutide exceeded 10% TBWL and showed the most favourable glycaemic effects. Semaglutide reduced major adverse cardiovascular events and all cause mortality. In dedicated complication specific trials, semaglutide and tirzepatide showed benefit on heart failure related outcomes; tirzepatide was associated with improved obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome and semaglutide with knee osteoarthritis pain remission. Tirzepatide and semaglutide were associated with improvements in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis remission, and semaglutide with improvement in liver fibrosis. No OMMs were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events. These updated results reinforce the need to individualize OMMs selection according to weight loss efficacy, complication profile and safety.

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Genetic liability to metabolic dysfunction modelled in early adulthood predicts cardiometabolic risk across the life course in Asian populations

Pan, H.; Wang, D.

2026-04-27 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.24.26351660 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Cardiometabolic diseases arise from metabolic dysfunction that develops decades before clinical onset. Conventional genetic risk models are typically derived in middle-aged or older populations, where genetic effects are confounded by cumulative environmental exposures, chronic comorbidities, and clinical interventions. Whether the life stage at which genetic liability is modelled influences the biological signal captured by polygenic scores remains unclear, particularly in underrepresented populations. We therefore tested whether genetic liability modelled in early adulthood, a period of relative physiological stability, is associated with cardiometabolic risk across the life course in Asian populations. Methods: We developed a polygenic score for metabolic syndrome, GenMetS, using data from 1,368 Singaporean women aged 18-45 years. The model integrates 15 established polygenic scores for metabolic traits and applies elastic-net penalized regression to optimize variant weights. GenMetS was evaluated in five cohorts comprising 670,952 individuals aged 0-94 years across population-based and disease-enriched settings, including Asian and European ancestry groups. Associations with metabolic traits, cardiometabolic diseases, multimorbidity, and early-life growth patterns were assessed. Results: In Asian populations, GenMetS explained 5.0-12.4% of the variance in metabolic syndrome in adults and 10.3% in children, with negligible performance in European populations (R squared < 0.001). Higher GenMetS was associated with increased odds of cardiometabolic diseases, including type 2 diabetes, heart failure, and stroke (odds ratios 1.32-1.52 per standard deviation). In UK Biobank participants of Asian ancestry, GenMetS improved discrimination of cardiometabolic multimorbidity beyond age alone. Associations were consistent across sexes. In children, higher GenMetS was associated with obesogenic growth trajectories and increased abdominal adiposity. Conclusions: Genetic liability to metabolic dysfunction modelled in early adulthood captures a stable biological signal associated with metabolic traits, disease risk, and multimorbidity from childhood to adulthood in Asian populations. These findings indicate that the life stage of model derivation shapes the biological signal captured by polygenic scores and support the development of life-stage and ancestry-informed approaches for cardiometabolic risk assessment and prevention.

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Prediabetes and glycemic transitions as determinants of frailty and functional decline in adults aged 50 years and older: A longitudinal analysis from five multinational aging cohorts

Malagon-Liceaga, A.; Basile-Alvarez, M. R.; Fermin-Martinez, C. A.; Ramirez-Rivera, D. L.; Perezalonso Espinosa, J.; Diaz-Sanchez, J. P.; Garcia-Gonzalez, S. B.; Carrillo-Herrera, K. B.; Cabrera-Quintana, L. A.; Antonio-Villa, N. E.; Gomes-Goncalves, N.; Garcia-Pena, C.; Bello-Chavolla, O. Y.

2026-04-24 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351540 medRxiv
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Background: Prediabetes is highly prevalent in older adults and is characterized by heterogeneous clinical trajectories, including regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes. While prediabetes has been associated with impaired physical function and frailty, the longitudinal impact of both a single diagnosis and dynamic glycemic transitions on functional outcomes remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate associations between baseline prediabetes and glycemic transitions over time with trajectories of functional capacity and frailty in older adults. Methods: We conducted a pooled analysis of harmonized data from five nationally representative longitudinal aging cohorts (MHAS, HRS, CHARLS, ELSA, CRELES) within the Gateway to Global Aging Data, including adults aged [&ge;]50 years with [&ge;]1 HbA1c measurements. Prediabetes was defined per ADA criteria (HbA1c 5.7-6.4%). Functional outcomes included activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental ADL (IADL), and frailty assessed using Fried phenotype, FRAIL scale, and a deficit-accumulation Frailty Index (FI). Mixed-effects Poisson models estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for baseline prediabetes, while generalized estimating equations assessed time-varying glycemic status and transition trajectories. Models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and time-varying covariates, with sensitivity analyses including BMI, smoking, and alcohol intake. Findings: Among 18,571 participants (median follow-up 13.6 years), baseline prediabetes was associated with increased progression of functional deficits and frailty compared with normoglycemia, including higher FI values and accelerated FI progression. Prediabetes was associated with higher incidence of ADL, IADL, and multimorbidity deficits from early follow-up, although time-dependent changes in incidence rates were not significant. In time-varying analyses (n=7,840), both prediabetes and diabetes were associated with higher incidence of functional deficits compared with normoglycemia, with diabetes showing the strongest effects across all outcomes. Diabetes was associated with greater FI burden and accelerated progression, whereas prediabetes showed a smaller increase, with attenuation over time. Among individuals with baseline prediabetes, regression to normoglycemia occurred in 20.8% and was associated with increased incidence of ADL and frailty deficits. In contrast, progression to diabetes occurred in 24.3%, and was associated with lower risk of incident ADL and Fried frailty deficits compared to stable prediabetes. Interpretation: Prediabetes is associated with increased risk of functional decline, frailty, and deficit accumulation in older adults, independent of progression to diabetes. Regression to normoglycemia was associated with higher risk of functional deterioration. These findings suggest that prediabetes reflects a state of metabolic vulnerability linked to biological aging rather than solely a precursor to diabetes and highlights a need to reframe its clinical significance in older populations. Funding: This research was supported by Instituto Nacional de Geriatria in Mexico. Keywords: Prediabetes; Glycemic transitions; Frailty; Functional decline; Aging; Multimorbidity

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Vision, hearing, and intellectual disabilities in school-age children (5-19 years) in Latin America and the Caribbean

Coelho, J. A. P. d. M.; Nascimento da Paixao, A.; Guimaraes Almeida, B.; Näslund-Hadley, E.

2026-04-23 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351429 medRxiv
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Background Childhood sensory and intellectual disabilities represent significant yet under-recognized barriers to learning and human capital development. This study analyzes prevalence and severity of these conditions among 149.3 million children aged 5-19 years across 25 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data. Methods We extracted GBD 2023 estimates for vision loss, hearing loss, and intellectual disability across 25 LAC countries, stratified by age, sex, and severity. Regional estimates were calculated using population-weighted averages. Severity distributions were compared with OECD countries to contextualize regional patterns. Results: These conditions are estimated to affected 9,282,921 children (6.22%; 95% UI: 5.89-6.54%). Hearing loss was predominant, affecting an estimated 5.42 million (3.63%, 3.41-3.86), with 87.6% mild-to-moderate. Intellectual disability estimated to affected 2.56 million (1.71%, 1.58-1.85), with 61.7% borderline-to-mild. Vision loss estimated to affected 1.30 million (0.87%, 0.79-0.96), with 89% that can be effectively addressed with spectacles. Prevalence increased with age across all conditions. Male predominance was consistent for intellectual disability (2.00% vs 1.42%). Annual economic cost totaled US$19.3-29.0 billion, while comprehensive interventions would require US$9.45-14.23 billion with benefit-cost ratios of 2:1 to 15:1. Conclusions The distribution of children across milder levels of difficulty underscores the opportunity for education and public health systems to provide timely and accessible support. With approximately 88% of sensory impairments addressable through established technologies, investments in inclusive services can yield strong social and economic returns.

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An Assessment of the Real-World Data Platform TriNetX for Measuring the Association Between Group A Streptococcus and Neuropsychiatric Diagnoses

Gao, S.; Gao, J.; Miles, K.; Madan, J. C.; Pasternack, M.; Wald, E. R.; Gunther, S. H.; Frankovich, J.

2026-04-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.24.26351687 medRxiv
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Background Group A streptococcus (GAS) infections have been associated with neuropsychiatric disorders in epidemiologic studies and animal models, but data in US health care populations are limited. GAS is also associated with autoimmune sequelae, including acute rheumatic fever (ARF)/Sydenham chorea (SC), poststreptococcal reactive arthritis (PSRA), poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis (PSGN), and guttate psoriasis (GP). Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) has been linked to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and multiple sclerosis (MS) and the complexity of these associations parallels that of GAS-associated conditions, providing a useful comparison. Objectives 1) Assess the association between a positive GAS test and incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses within 1 year in a large US health care database. 2) Assess the validity of the same database in detecting well-established disease associations while avoiding false associations. Design, Setting, Participants Retrospective cohort study using TriNetX data from US health care organizations. Patients with positive or negative tests were propensity score-matched (GAS cohort n=178,301; EBV cohort n=64,854). Patients with documented neuropsychiatric diagnoses prior to testing were excluded. To approximate a primary care population, inclusion required at least one well-visit. Exposures Positive vs negative GAS test; positive vs negative EBV test (separate cohorts). Main Outcomes and Validations Main outcome: incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses within 1 year of GAS testing. Positive control outcomes: ARF/SC, PSRA, PSGN, and GP (for GAS cohort); SLE and MS (for EBV cohort). Negative control outcomes: conditions without known association with GAS. Results After matching, a positive GAS test was associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (RR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.03-1.15). Among established poststreptococcal conditions, only GP was associated with prior GAS (RR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.06-2.89). Case counts were insufficient to evaluate ARF/SC, PSRA, and PSGN. Negative control outcomes showed no association. In the EBV cohort, no association was observed with SLE, and MS showed a decreased risk. Conclusions and Relevance A positive GAS test was associated with ADHD but not with other neuropsychiatric disorders. The database detected poststreptococcal GP but did not identify most established postinfectious autoimmune associations, likely reflecting rarity, heterogeneity, and diagnostic complexity. These findings begin to describe the range of real-world health care databases to evaluate postinfectious neuropsychiatric risk.

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Impact of surveillance colonoscopy on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Lynch syndrome - a national observational cohort study of patients in the English NHS 2010-2022

Huntley, C.; Loong, L.; Mallinson, C.; Rahman, T.; Torr, B.; Allen, S.; Allen, I.; Hassan, H.; Fru, Y. W. J.; Tataru, D.; Paley, L.; Vernon, S.; Houlston, R.; Muller, D.; Lalloo, F.; Shaw, A.; Burn, J.; Morris, E.; Tischkowitz, M.; Antoniou, A. C.; Pharoah, P. D. P.; Monahan, K.; Hardy, S.; Turnbull, C.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351020 medRxiv
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BackgroundLynch syndrome (LS) is a cancer susceptibility syndrome caused by germline pathogenic variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Due to increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), enhanced colonoscopic surveillance is recommended for heterozygote MMR-carriers. ObjectiveUsing a registry of English LS patients linked to digital National Health Service records, we aimed to assess adherence of MMR-carriers to national surveillance guidelines, and to determine the impact of surveillance on CRC incidence and mortality. DesignWe described the frequency of colonoscopies in 4,732 MMR-carriers and used logistic regression to determine predictors of surveillance adherence. For MMR-carriers with a record of surveillance and those without, we: estimated age-specific annual CRC incidence rates (AS-AIRs) and cumulative lifetime risks, assessed for stage-shift by comparing CRC stage distributions and stage-specific AS-AIRs, and estimated risks of death from CRC and any cause using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox Proportional Hazards regression. ResultsSurveillance at a mean interval of [&le;] 3 years (n=3028) was associated with a decrease in CRC-specific and all-cause mortality, without an associated change in total CRC incidence, even after multivariate adjustment. No strong evidence of stage-shift was observed. Colonoscopic surveillance at a mean interval of [&le;] 2 years (n=1569) was associated with an increase in total CRC incidence. Incidence of early-stage cancers was also higher, with no corresponding decrease in late-stage cancers, which may reflect the short follow-up period or the impact of overdiagnosis. ConclusionThe observed reduction in all-cause mortality amongst regularly-surveilled MMR-carriers may indicate an impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, though in the context of a non-randomised study likely reflects the influence of selection bias. KEY MESSAGES OF ARTICLEO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSRegular surveillance colonoscopy is recommended in Lynch syndrome, though evidence to support this remains mixed. We searched PubMed for articles published from inception to 01/05/2024 using the terms "Lynch syndrome", "HNPCC", "colonoscopy", "sigmoidoscopy", "surveillance", and "screening". We found one controlled trial and several small analytical studies dating from the early 2000s which compared surveilled and non-surveilled populations and found surveillance to be associated with reduced colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and improved survival. More recent longitudinal observational studies, most without comparator groups, found a high incidence of CRC in LS populations despite being resident in countries where surveillance was recommended. A small number of studies directly assessed time since last colonoscopy against CRC incidence and stage with mixed findings. Finally, cross-sectional comparisons between countries of CRC incidence rates and surveillance interval recommendations found no relationship between the two1,2. What this study addsHere, we conduct an observational cohort study on a large national cohort of MMR germline pathogenic variant (GPV) carriers (MMR-carriers) in England (n=4,732), comparing CRC incidence and mortality in individuals with a record of regular surveillance to those without. Through linkage of the English National Lynch Syndrome Registry to Hospital Episodes Statistics data, we are uniquely able to study a comprehensive national population of MMR-carriers and identify the dates on which colonoscopies were undertaken over time, allowing assessment of adherence to national surveillance guidelines and the impact this has on CRC outcomes. Notably, receipt of regular colonoscopy was strongly associated with deprivation as well as ethnicity. The results show that regular surveillance at an average interval of 3 years (or less) is not associated with a reduction in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, but an apparent decrease in both CRC-specific and overall mortality is observed, even after adjustment for confounding variables. Conversely, regular surveillance at an average interval of 2 years (or less) is associated with an increase in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, which may suggest increased diagnosis of early-stage cancers or, due to the absence of a reduction in late-stage cancers, overdiagnosis. The observed impact of surveillance on overall mortality may demonstrate the impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, or, in the context of an observational (non-randomised) study, indicate that the results are subject to selection bias. How this study might affect research, practice, or policyEvidence for the benefit of surveillance colonoscopy remains mixed. Whilst polypectomy would be anticipated to prevent CRC development (thus reducing CRC incidence), several studies have observed increased frequency of CRCs in MMR-carriers undergoing frequent surveillance colonoscopy, which may reflect overdiagnosis. The selection bias inherent to observational studies of surveillance renders mortality outcomes challenging to interpret. Randomised controlled trials of colonoscopic surveillance in MMR-carriers are required for effectiveness of this intervention to be accurately assessed. Given ethical and feasibility challenges, randomised controlled trials might be complemented by quasi-experimental designs using advanced observational methods for assessing effectiveness.

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The Impact of Malnutrition on Host Responses to Severe Infection in Adults: A Multicenter Analysis from Uganda

Conte Cortez Martins, G.; Lutwama, J. J.; Owor, N.; Namulondo, J.; Ross, J. E.; Lu, X.; Asasira, I.; Kiyingi, T.; Nsereko, C.; Nsubuga, J. B.; Shinyale, J.; Kiwubeyi, M.; Nankwanga, R.; Nie, K.; Reynolds, S. J.; Kayiwa, J.; Kim-Schulze, S.; Bakamutumaho, B.; Cummings, M.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351315 medRxiv
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ObjectiveStudies of nutritional status and host responses during severe and critical illness have focused predominantly on obesity; in contrast, the relationship between undernutrition, host responses, and clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with severe infection remains poorly defined. We sought to determine whether severe undernutrition is associated with distinct host responses and clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with severe infection. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingTwo public referral hospitals in Uganda. PatientsNon-pregnant adults ([&ge;]18 yr) hospitalized with severe, undifferentiated infection. InterventionsNone. Measurements and Main ResultsWe analyzed clinical data and serum Olink proteomic data from 432 participants (median age, 45 yr [IQR, 31-57 yr]; 44% male). Overall, 213 participants (49%) met prespecified criteria for undernutrition, including 52 (12%) with severe undernutrition. Clinically, severe undernutrition was associated with HIV coinfection, microbiologically diagnosed tuberculosis, greater physiological instability, and higher mortality. After adjustment for age, sex, illness duration, study site, and HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis coinfection, severe undernutrition was associated with higher expression of proteins involved in pro-inflammatory immune signaling, endothelial and vascular remodeling, hypoxia and oxidative stress responses, and extracellular matrix remodeling, together with lower expression of proteins linked to growth signaling, anticoagulant regulation, and lipid homeostasis. ConclusionsSevere undernutrition is associated with a distinct high-risk clinical phenotype and biologic signature in adults hospitalized with severe infection. These findings suggest that undernutrition may potentiate key domains of sepsis pathobiology, with implications for strengthening nutritional support and informing host-directed treatment strategies in low- and middle-income countries where malnutrition is common. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSHow does undernutrition influence immune, metabolic, and endothelial responses to severe infection in adults? FindingsIn this multicenter cohort study of 432 adults hospitalized with severe infection in Uganda, severe undernutrition was associated with greater physiologic instability, higher mortality, and a distinct proteomic host-response profile. Adults with severe undernutrition exhibited a proteomic signature characterized by pro-inflammatory immune signaling, endothelial and extracellular matrix remodeling, and hypoxia and oxidative stress responses, together with lower expression of proteins involved in growth signaling, anticoagulant regulation, and lipid homeostasis. MeaningSevere undernutrition is associated with a distinct high-risk clinical and biologic phenotype during severe infection, with implications for nutritional support, risk stratification, and host-directed therapeutic strategies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

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Seeding patient-derived tau induces tauopathy-specific aggregation and lysosomal disruption in human cells

Kavanagh, T.; Strobbe, A.; Balcomb, K.; Agius, C.; Gao, J.; Genoud, S.; Kanshin, E.; Ueberheide, B.; Kassiou, M.; Werry, E.; Halliday, G.; Drummond, E.

2026-04-21 cell biology 10.64898/2026.04.20.719763 medRxiv
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BackgroundTau aggregation is the defining feature of tauopathies, however, the mechanisms by which distinct tau strains drive disease-specific responses remain unclear. Existing models largely rely on recombinant tau seeding or tau overexpression, which fail to capture the biochemical diversity of pathological tau. The aim of this study was to develop a robust and reproducible human cell-based model of disease-specific tau pathology and to use this model to determine how tau from unique diseases impact tau accumulation and lysosomal dysfunction. MethodsPatient-derived tau aggregates were enriched from post-mortem brain tissue obtained from sporadic Alzheimers disease (AD), Picks disease (PiD), progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), and control cases using phosphotungstic acid precipitation. Patient-derived tau preparations were biochemically characterised by immunoblotting and mass spectrometry and normalised for tau content prior to seeding. Patient-derived tau aggregates were seeded into multiple human immortalised cell lines (SH-SY5Y, M03.13, U-87 MG, and U-118 MG cells) and iPSC-derived astrocytes. Tau seeding efficiency, aggregate morphology, and integrity of the autophagy-lysosomal pathway was assessed using quantitative imaging approaches. ResultsPatient-derived tau seeds retained disease-specific phosphorylation patterns and isoform composition and led to reproducible, dose-dependent insoluble tau accumulation in all cell lines tested. Despite equivalent tau input and similar background protein composition, PiD-derived tau had the most aggressive pathological signature, showing the highest number of tau aggregates per cell and inducing system wide disruptions in the autophagy lysosomal system including increased SQSTM1 puncta and lysosomal damage markers. Seeding with AD-derived tau led to a high number of tau aggregates per cell and more specifically depleted the lysosomal protease CTSD and uniquely co-seeded A{beta} pathology. Seeding with PSP-derived tau resulted in only a moderate number of tau aggregates per cell and uniquely caused increased lysosomal biogenesis. ConclusionsTogether, these results demonstrate that intrinsic properties of human tau strains drive disease-specific cellular responses and establish a scalable, physiologically relevant platform for dissecting tau-cell interactions and screening therapeutics across tauopathies.

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Participant engagement and feedback in microbiome projects: a case of AWI-Gen 2

Nkera-Gutabara, C.; Olubayo, L. A. I.; Oduaran, O. H.; Kisiangani, I.; Khoza, S.; Gama, K.; Maritze, M.; Mabunda, C.; Keya, D.; Adetunji, K. E.; Tollman, S.; Micklesfield, L. K.; Mohamed, S. F.; Gomez-Olive, F. X.; Tluway, F.; Ramsay, M.; Bhatt, A. S.; Hazelhurst, S.; Maghini, D. G.; AWI-Gen Collaborative Centre, ; MADIVA Research Hub,

2026-04-22 scientific communication and education 10.64898/2026.04.20.718838 medRxiv
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Returning individualized microbiome results in ways that are ethical, comprehensible, and useful remains under-explored in African settings. We nested a multi-site, mixed-methods study within the AWI-Gen Wave 2 gut microbiome sub-study of 1,801 women aged 42 to 86 years to engage the participants and provide feedback. All (1,001) participants from Agincourt and Soweto (South Africa) and Nairobi (Kenya) were invited to feedback meetings: 496 from Agincourt, 87 from Soweto, and 195 from Nairobi responded. Engagement strategies were tailored by site (small-group and home-based sessions, visual metaphors, Foldscopes, and local-language delivery). Using semi-structured discussions and structured observations analysed thematically in MAXQDA under COREQ, five cross-cutting themes emerged: (1) understanding of microbiome reports, (2) emotional responses to feedback, (3) perceived health relevance, (4) trust in research institutions, and (5) suggestions for improving engagement. Culturally grounded explanations and local-language facilitation enhanced comprehension and perceived relevance; English-heavy sessions were associated with more confusion. Most participants expressed satisfaction and described planned or enacted dietary and lifestyle changes, while frustration centred on long delays between sampling and feedback. Trust increased with transparency and individualized return of results but was often conditional on minimizing burdensome procedures such as repeat blood sampling (phlebotomy) and ensuring timely feedback. Engagement was feasible and low-cost (approximately USD 29-59 per participant) with site-specific resource needs. Limitations included constrained generalizability beyond the three study sites. Returning individualized microbiome findings in community settings in Africa is acceptable, feasible, and can motivate health-promoting behaviours when delivered promptly and in culturally and linguistically appropriate ways.

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Multicohort development and validation of a machine learning model to predict six-month functional traumatic brain injury outcomes in a large national registry

Vattipally, V. N.; Jillala, R. R.; Kramer, P.; Elshareif, M.; Singh, S.; Jo, J.; Suarez, J. I.; Sakran, J. V.; Haut, E. R.; Huang, J.; Bettegowda, C.; Azad, T. D.

2026-04-27 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351622 medRxiv
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Background: Prognostication after moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) rarely captures long-term functional recovery, despite its importance to patients, families, and clinicians. Large trauma registries such as the Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) dataset contain detailed clinical data but lack systematic follow-up, limiting their ability to study longer-term functional outcomes. Methods: We developed and externally validated a machine learning model to predict favorable six-month functional outcome (GOS MD/GR or GOSE >=5) using harmonized data from two randomized clinical trials: CRASH (training) and ROC-TBI (validation). Five candidate classifiers (random forest [RF], linear discriminant analysis, k-nearest neighbors, naive Bayes, and support vector machine) were trained using seven shared clinical predictors. Models were evaluated using ROC-AUC, calibration metrics, and performance at the Youden optimal threshold and a high-sensitivity secondary threshold. The final model was applied to patients with moderate-to-severe TBI in the national TQIP registry (2017-2022) to estimate population-level recovery patterns. Results: The RF model demonstrated the highest overall performance after recalibration, achieving strong discrimination (AUC internal and external, 0.887 and 0.784), good calibration, and high sensitivity (0.890) and negative predictive value (0.909). Applied to 63,289 patients from TQIP, the model estimated that 45% would achieve favorable six-month outcomes at the Youden optimal threshold and 57% at the high-sensitivity threshold, with predicted recovery aligning with established clinical correlates such as younger age, higher admission GCS, and lower rates of penetrating or brainstem injuries. Conclusion: A machine learning model trained on high-quality trial data can generate clinically plausible estimates of long-term functional recovery when applied at scale to national trauma registries that lack systematic follow-up. This approach enables imputation of functional outcomes in datasets lacking follow-up, supports benchmarking and quality improvement across trauma systems, and provides a foundation for future models incorporating physiologic time-series, imaging, and biomarker data.

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A rights-based intervention integrating social work and ophthalmic care for people experiencing or at risk of homelessness

Hassani, A.; Pecar, K.; Soliman, M.; Bunyon, P.; Ellinger, C.; Tulysewskid, G.; Croft, J.; Carillo, C.; Wewegama, G.; du Plessis-Schneider, S.; Estevez, J. J.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351525 medRxiv
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Background Individuals experiencing or at risk of homelessness face substantial barriers to preventive eye care that are poorly addressed by standard service models. Interdisciplinary optometry-social work collaboration offers a rights-based approach to improving engagement and continuity of care. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study was conducted between February and August 2024 at a multidisciplinary community centre. Clients experiencing or at risk of homelessness received integrated optometry and social work assessment and were prioritised as high, medium, or low based on combined clinical and social risk. Social work follow-up was guided by the Triple Mandate and W-Questions framework. Quantitative data were summarised using mean (SD), median [IQR], or n (%). Qualitative case notes were analysed using content analysis with inductive coding and secondary review for consistency. Results A total of 165 clients had priority categories coded (high: 68; medium: 47; low: 154). Demographic data were available for 132 clients (60% male; mean age 49.5 years [SD 16]); 27% had not completed high school, 89% reported weekly income below AUD 1000, and 28% had vision impairment. Two hundred forty-five case-note entries were consolidated into 146 unique records. SMS (46%) and phone calls (38%) were the most documented contact methods, although only 21% of calls were answered; missed calls (13%) and disconnected numbers (7%) were common. Multi-modal contact was more frequently documented for higher-priority clients. Appointment assistance was the most recorded facilitator (71%), while rights-based supports, including interpreter and transport assistance, were infrequently documented (<=5%). Qualitative analysis identified unstable communication, reliance on informal supports, and service fragmentation as key influences on recall outcomes. Conclusion This study supports an interdisciplinary, rights-based optometry-social work model to address barriers to preventive eye care among people experiencing or at risk of homelessness. Embedding structured handovers and tiered recall processes within community-based services may strengthen continuity and accountability for high-priority clients. Future implementation should evaluate outcomes related to equity of reach, service integration, and sustained engagement in care.

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Differences in tuberculosis prevalence among people living with and without HIV in low-and-middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Swartwood, N.; Can, M. H.; Mortazavi, S. A.; Cui, H.; Singh, N.; Ryuk, D. K.; Horton, K.; MacPherson, P.; Menzies, N. A.

2026-04-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351343 medRxiv
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BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are leading causes of infectious disease deaths, with disproportionate impact in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite well-established biological relationships between these diseases, there is limited information on how TB prevalence differs between people living with and without HIV. MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of TB prevalence surveys conducted in LMICs and published during January 1st 1993-October 13th 2025 (PROSPERO CRD42024503853). We extracted bacteriologically-confirmed TB prevalence estimates stratified by participant HIV status. Surveys that offered HIV testing to all, sputum-collection-eligible, or TB-positive participants were included in the primary analysis. We applied Bayesian meta-regression to estimate pooled risk ratios (RR) of bacteriologically-confirmed TB prevalence among participants living with versus without HIV. Additionally, we estimated country-level and overall TB notification-to-prevalence (N:P) ratios by HIV status. FindingsOf 10,211 potentially relevant publications, 12 TB prevalence surveys--representing 264,530 participants within nine countries in Southern and Eastern Africa--were used in the primary analysis. Reported TB prevalence was higher among participants living with versus without HIV in 11/12 surveys, with an overall pooled RR of 3{middle dot}86 (95% credible interval: 2{middle dot}41-5{middle dot}53). N:P ratios were higher among participants living with HIV in all examined countries. The overall pooled N:P ratios were 1{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}59-4{middle dot}56) and 0{middle dot}48 (0{middle dot}17-1{middle dot}20) among participants living with versus without HIV, respectively. InterpretationIn Southern and Eastern Africa, bacteriologically-confirmed TB prevalence is three- to six-times higher among people living with HIV. Comparison of prevalence and notification data suggest higher rates of TB diagnosis for people living with versus without HIV, but also indicates substantial delays in the detection of untreated TB cases for both populations. FundingWellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, NIH. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThere is limited systematic evidence on how the prevalence of TB disease differs between people living with HIV and without HIV. Multiple observational cohorts have described substantially elevated TB incidence among populations with HIV, but disease prevalence will also be affected by differences in mortality and treatment uptake rates. We searched PubMed from inception through January 21, 2026 using the search string ((HIV AND TB) OR HIV/TB) AND (prevalence AND (systematic review OR meta-analysis)) without any restrictions on language. We also reviewed investigators personal libraries. This search yielded 506 publications; however few of these included prevalence data. An analysis conducted in 2020 synthesized HIV status-stratified data from seven national TB prevalence surveys in Africa and found that HIV prevalence was lower among prevalent TB cases than among notified cases. This study did not include subnational surveys and did not distinguish between survey participants with self-reported or test-confirmed HIV status. Added value of this studyThis study synthesized TB prevalence data, stratified by participant HIV status, from national and subnational surveys conducted in LMICs and published between January 1st 1993 and October 13th, 2025. Collated data represented 681,402 survey participants across ten countries. All but one study were conducted in Southern and Eastern Africa. We limited our primary analysis to surveys that systematically tested participants for HIV and bacteriologically-confirmed TB. The prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed TB was estimated to be three to six times higher than among people living with versus without HIV. Ratios of TB notifications to TB prevalence were higher for people living with HIV compared to people without HIV, suggesting higher rates of TB case detection (and likely shorter duration of disease) for people living with HIV and untreated TB than those without HIV. Implications of all available evidenceFew estimates of community-representative TB prevalence stratified by participant HIV status exist. These surveys have been concentrated in Southern and Eastern Africa, despite TB-HIV burden being distributed globally. Our findings highlight the elevated burden of TB among people living with HIV in these settings, as well as the limited data on the intersection of TB and HIV epidemiology in other world regions. Furthermore, our comparison of notification and prevalence data demonstrate substantial shortfalls in TB case detection, regardless of an individuals HIV status.

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Global burden of stigma and discrimination against transgender and gender-diverse adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Barre-Quick, M.; Yeh, P. T.; Kennedy, C. E.; Azuma, H.; McLellan, C.; Cooney, E. E.

2026-04-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351490 medRxiv
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Abstract Importance Stigma and discrimination against transgender and gender-diverse people are prevalent across many settings and may contribute to substantial health disparities. Objective To synthesize global evidence on the prevalence of stigma, discrimination, and resilience among transgender (trans) and gender-diverse adults. Data Sources A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Central, LILACS, and PsycInfo for articles published between January 1, 2010 and January 2, 2023. This database search was supplemented by grey literature and secondary reference searches. Article Selection Studies were eligible if they presented primary quantitative data on prevalence of stigma, discrimination, and/or resilience among trans and gender-diverse adults (aged 18 and over), with no restrictions on study design, language, or geographic region. Data Extraction and Synthesis Two independent reviewers extracted data using standardized forms, with discrepancies resolved by consensus. The JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Articles was used to assess risk of bias. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted for dichotomous prevalence measures using inverse variance weighting and logit transformation; non-dichotomous prevalence data were summarized descriptively. Main Outcomes and Measures Outcomes included prevalence estimates for various forms of stigma (anticipated, perceived, internalized, and experienced), discrimination in legal/institutional settings (housing, healthcare, employment, police/prison), and resilience. Results A total of 97 articles, with data from 72,158 unique trans and gender-diverse participants across 26 countries, met inclusion criteria. Studies showed moderate levels of anticipated stigma, perceived stigma, and internalized stigma. Meta-analyses of 36 studies provided pooled estimates of discrimination prevalence across multiple domains: 21.4% in housing (e.g., eviction, rental denial), 24.6% in healthcare (e.g., denial of care, mistreatment), 32.8% in employment (e.g., hiring bias, workplace harassment), and 39.1% in police/prison settings (e.g., profiling, mistreatment). High heterogeneity was observed across studies, reflecting regional and methodological differences. Resilience scores ranged from moderate to high, indicating variation within trans and gender-diverse communities. Conclusions and Relevance This systematic review and meta-analysis found that stigma and discrimination against trans and gender-diverse adults are pervasive globally. Variation in stigma and discrimination across settings and regions underscores the need for targeted interventions and policy reforms. Funding World Health Organization through a grant from the Elton John AIDS Foundation and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Cost analysis of a nationwide typhoid conjugate vaccine campaign in Burkina Faso

Koulidiati, J.-L.; Zoma, R. L.; Nebie, E. I.; Soumaila, Y.; Neya, C. O.; Kiendrebeogo, J. A.; Debellut, F.

2026-04-25 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.17.26350856 medRxiv
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Background: In Burkina Faso, typhoid fever remains a major public health concern, with a high incidence among children younger than 15 years of age. To address this burden, the country introduced typhoid conjugate vaccine in January 2025 through a national vaccination campaign reaching children aged 9 months to 14 years. This study aimed to estimate the cost of typhoid conjugate vaccine delivery during the national campaign and to identify the main cost drivers across different administrative levels. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective costing study using a microcosting approach from the government perspective. We collected data from fifty health facilities, eight health districts, five health regions, and the national level. Financial and economic costs were estimated for each level, excluding vaccine and syringe costs. All costs were converted to 2024 USD using the official exchange rate. Findings: Vaccinators administered a total of 10.5 million typhoid conjugate vaccine doses. The average financial cost per dose was $0.47 (95% CI: $0.39-$0.51), and the economic cost was $2.16 (95% CI: $1.71-$2.56). Human resources and per diem payments were the main contributors to costs. Costs varied by geography, delivery strategy, and security context, with higher costs observed in rural and conflict-affected areas. The mobile-temporary posts strategy had the highest economic cost per dose ($2.02; 95% CI: $1.64-$2.40), while the fixed strategy had the highest financial cost per dose ($0.41; 95% CI: ($0.32-$0.49). Conclusion: The financial cost per dose remained within Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's operational support range. The observed cost variations highlight the need for targeted funding and enhanced logistical support to ensure equitable access, particularly in rural and insecure areas. This study provides evidence to inform future vaccination campaigns and supports decision-making for typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction in other countries in the region.

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Legacy neuropsychiatric benefit after semaglutide is linked to maximum achieved dose and independent of the maximum weight lost

murugadoss, k.; Venkatakrishnan, A.; Soundararajan, V.

2026-04-23 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351060 medRxiv
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GLP-1 receptor agonists have reshaped obesity therapeutics, but their impact on neuropsychiatric outcomes remains poorly characterized. From 29 million patients in a large federated data platform across the USA, including 489,785 semaglutide treated patients, we conducted an observational study integrating longitudinal neuropsychiatric outcomes. From this population, we assembled a cohort of 63,215 patients with baseline neuropsychiatric conditions before treatment initiation and evaluated 24 incident neuropsychiatric outcomes. In propensity-matched comparator analyses, during the 2 year time-period from treatment initiation, semaglutide was associated with broadly lower neuropsychiatric event risk than metformin, SGLT2 inhibitors, and DPP-4 inhibitors. Within the semaglutide-treated cohort, higher attained dose during the first two years after the first prescription ("pre-landmark period") was associated with significantly lower incidence during the following two years ("post-landmark period") of diagnostic codes associated with substance-related disorders (P<0.001), mood disorders (P<0.001), anxiety- and stress-related disorders (P<0.001), CNS atrophies (P<0.001), neuromuscular disorders (P=0.013), eating/sleep/behavioral disorders (P=0.022), and personality/impulse-control disorders (P=0.028). Consistent with previous clinical trials, the post-landmark incidence of dementia or CNS degenerative diseases was similar between the high-dose and low-dose semaglutide cohorts (P=0.15). For most neuropsychiatric diagnoses, post-landmark incidence was strongly associated with the maximum attained semaglutide dose during the pre-landmark period, but incident cognitive symptoms and speech/language symptoms were more closely linked to the pre-landmark weight-loss magnitude (p<0.001 and p<0.003, respectively). Bulk and single-cell transcriptomic analyses demonstrated GLP1R expression in CNS tissues (hypothalamus, caudate, putamen, nucleus accumbens, cerebellum) and peripheral nerves. Age-associated heterogeneity in GLP1R expression was evident in several of these compartments including the caudate nucleus, suggesting dynamic changes in the availability of the neurobiological substrate for semaglutide response. Together, these data support a model in which semaglutide confers a sustained, dose-dependent, weight loss-independent benefit across multiple neuropsychiatric conditions via direct CNS target engagement. This observational study motivates prospective clinical studies and mechanistic analyses to clarify the impact of GLP-1 receptor agonists on human neuropsychiatric pathways and disease processes.

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Weight Trajectories and Cancer Risk: A Pooled Cohort Study

Nilsson, A.; da Silva, M.; Le, H. T.; Haggstrom, C.; Wahlstrom, J.; Michaelsson, K.; Trolle Lagerros, Y.; Sandin, S.; Magnusson, P. K.; Fritz, J.; Stocks, T.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351553 medRxiv
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Excess body weight has been associated with increased cancer risk, but the role of weight change across adulthood remains unclear. We examined body weight trajectories from ages 17 to 60 and their associations with site-specific cancer incidence. Data were based on the ODDS study, a pooled, nationwide cohort study in Sweden, with data on weight spanning 1911 to 2020, and cancer follow-up through 2023. Weight trajectories were estimated with linear mixed effects models in individuals with at least three weight measurements. Cox regressions estimated hazard ratios for associations between weight trajectories and established and potentially obesity-related cancers. Fifth versus first quintile of weight change was associated with many cancers, most strongly with esophageal adenocarcinoma in men (HR 2.25; 95% CI 1.66-3.04), liver cancer in men (HR 2.67; 95% CI 2.15-3.33), endometrial cancer in women (HR 3.78; 95% CI 3.09-4.61), and pituitary tumors in both sexes (men: HR 3.13 [95% CI 2.13-4.61]; women: HR 2.13 [95% CI 1.41-3.22]). Associations varied by sex and age. Heavier weight at age 17 years and earlier obesity onset were also associated with higher cancer incidence. These findings highlight the importance of a life-course approach to weight management and support sex- and age-targeted cancer prevention strategies.